Timeline
Term structure of priced macro risk: every market laid out by when it resolves, carrying its implied probability. Dot size = volume.
Aug '26Dec '26May '27Sep '27Jan '28
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
99%
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?
98%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
88%
Fed hikes at the Sep 2026 meeting
2%
Fed funds >3.75% after the Sep 2026 meeting
56%
Fed holds at the Sep 2026 meeting
43%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Sep 2026 meeting
1%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Sep 2026 meeting
55%
Fed cuts 50+bps after the Sep 2026 meeting
1%
Fed hikes 50+bps after the Sep 2026 meeting
1%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
57%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
43%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
2%
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
37%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2026 meeting
7%
Fed funds >3.50% after the Oct 2026 meeting
93%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
66%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
28%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Oct 2026 meeting
23%
Fed holds at the Oct 2026 meeting
69%
Fed cuts 50+bps after the Oct 2026 meeting
2%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2026 meeting
6%
Fed funds >3.50% after the Dec 2026 meeting
86%
Fed hikes 25bps at the Dec 2026 meeting
34%
Fed rate hike in 2026?
68%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
56%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
63%
Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?
22%
No Fed rate cuts in 2026
89%
11 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
10 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
9 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
6 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
12+ Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
8 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
7 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
5 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
2 Fed rate cuts in 2026
3%
1 Fed rate cut in 2026
8%
3 Fed rate cuts in 2026
1%
4 Fed rate cuts in 2026
0%
Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027
3%
Fed lower bound ≤3.0% before 2027
4%
Fed lower bound ≤2.5% before 2027
4%
Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027
3%
Fed lower bound ≤0.25% before 2027
3%
Fed cuts rates before 2027
6%
Fed lower bound ≤0.5% before 2027
2%
Fed upper bound ≥4.25% before 2027
32%
Fed lower bound ≤3.25% before 2027
8%
Fed upper bound ≥4.75% before 2027
4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
23%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
67%
Fed upper bound ≥5.5% before 2027
3%
Fed cuts rates before 2027
12%
Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?
11%
Fed raises rates before 2027
69%
Fed holds at the Jan 2027 meeting
64%
Fed funds >3.25% after the Jan 2027 meeting
82%
Fed funds >3.25% after the Mar 2027 meeting
58%
Fed holds at the Mar 2027 meeting
66%
Fed funds >3.50% after the Apr 2027 meeting
53%
Fed hikes at the Apr 2027 meeting
8%
Fed cuts at the Jun 2027 meeting
5%
Fed cuts at the Jul 2027 meeting
3%
Fed cuts at the Sep 2027 meeting
22%
Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2027 meeting
8%
Fed hikes at the Dec 2027 meeting
7%
Fed hikes at the Jan 2028 meeting
18%
69 dated markets · sorted by resolution date · dot size ∝ volume · colour = theme.