Relative value

Market-implied strike ladders - the probability across thresholds for each macro metric (in effect, the market's implied distribution). A family must be monotone: a higher "above" threshold can only be less likely. Any rung priced richer than a lower one is a logical inconsistency, flagged in amber.

6 ladders with an inconsistency right now. For information only - not financial advice.

Implied distribution - CPI inflation, Jul 2026

The featured CPI ladder's strikes turned into a probability histogram: where the market thinks the print lands.

Now

Implied probability that CPI inflation for Jul 2026 lands in each range, derived from the P(value > threshold) strike ladder. Open end buckets (< lowest and > highest strike) carry the tail mass.

CPI inflation

Jul 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 3%99%
> 3.1%97%
> 3.2%92%
> 3.3%62%
> 3.4%27%
> 3.5%6%
> 3.6%3%
> 3.7%1%
> 3.8%1%
> 3.9%1%
> 4%1%
> 4.1%1%
> 4.2%1%
> 4.3%1%
> 4.4%1%
> 4.5%1%
> 4.6%1%
> 4.7%1%
> 4.8%1%
> 4.9%7%
> 5%1%

Fed upper bound

2027 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%96%
> 0.25%97%
> 0.5%81%
> 0.75%90%
> 1%93%
> 1.25%94%
> 1.5%85%
> 1.75%92%
> 2%90%
> 2.25%79%
> 2.5%85%
> 2.75%79%
> 3%76%
> 3.25%65%
> 3.5%53%
> 3.75%36%
> 4%40%
> 4.25%28%

GDP growth

2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 0%92%
> 0.5%84%
> 1%76%
> 1.5%74%
> 2%68%
> 2.5%58%
> 3%46%
> 3.5%59%
> 4%22%
> 9%0%

CPI inflation

Aug 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 2.5%99%
> 2.6%99%
> 2.7%99%
> 2.8%93%
> 2.9%99%
> 3%98%
> 3.1%97%
> 3.2%96%
> 3.3%90%
> 3.4%79%
> 3.5%64%
> 3.6%51%
> 3.7%69%
> 3.8%4%
> 3.9%5%
> 4%2%
> 4.1%4%
> 4.2%2%
> 4.3%2%
> 4.4%2%
> 4.5%1%
> 4.6%2%
> 4.7%2%
> 4.8%2%
> 4.9%2%
> 5%2%

CPI inflation

Nov 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 3%97%
> 3.1%72%
> 3.2%96%
> 3.3%42%
> 3.4%30%
> 3.5%21%
> 3.6%48%
> 3.7%51%
> 3.8%58%
> 3.9%21%
> 4%16%
> 4.1%5%
> 4.2%28%
> 4.3%6%
> 4.4%3%
> 4.5%16%
> 4.6%4%
> 4.7%4%
> 4.8%4%
> 4.9%5%
> 5%4%

CPI inflation

Sep 2026 · P(value > threshold)

inconsistency

> 3%99%
> 3.1%99%
> 3.2%60%
> 3.3%35%
> 3.4%54%
> 3.5%92%
> 3.6%8%
> 3.7%85%
> 3.8%12%
> 3.9%14%
> 4%8%
> 4.1%10%
> 4.2%18%
> 4.3%20%
> 4.4%15%
> 4.5%73%
> 4.6%1%
> 4.7%1%
> 4.8%4%
> 4.9%5%
> 5%9%

CPI inflation

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 4.5%24%
> 5%14%
> 6%4%
> 10%3%

Unemployment

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 5%10%
> 5.5%7%
> 6%8%

Fed upper bound

2026 · P(value > threshold)

> 2.75%98%
> 3%98%
> 3.25%98%
> 3.5%98%
> 3.75%56%
> 4%2%
> 4.25%1%
> 4.5%1%
> 4.75%1%
> 5%1%
> 5.25%1%

GDP growth

2027 · P(value > threshold)

> 0%87%
> 0.5%85%
> 1%72%
> 1.5%63%
> 2%52%
> 2.5%37%
> 3%27%
> 3.5%17%
> 4%12%