| Geopolitics | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket | 22% | 55.7M | in 21w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Polymarket | 4% | 39.4M | in 21w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Polymarket | 0% | 32.5M | in 21w | — |
| Geopolitics | Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Polymarket | 0% | 25.8M | in 21w | — |
| Geopolitics | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Polymarket | 9% | 18.4M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | No Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 89% | 6.8M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket | 68% | 6.2M | in 18w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 11 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 5.0M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 10 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.8M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 9 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 4.1M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 6 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.8M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 12+ Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.6M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Sep 2026 meetingPolymarket | 43% | 3.4M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Sep 2026 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 3.3M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 8 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.2M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 7 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 3.1M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Sep 2026 meetingPolymarket | 55% | 2.8M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 5 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 2.5M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 2 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 3% | 2.3M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 1 Fed rate cut in 2026Polymarket | 8% | 2.3M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 3 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 1% | 2.3M | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | 4 Fed rate cuts in 2026Polymarket | 0% | 2.3M | in 21w | — |
| Growth/Recession | US recession by end of 2026?Polymarket | 9% | 1.7M | in 26w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 50+bps after the Sep 2026 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 1.5M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 50+bps after the Sep 2026 meetingPolymarket | 1% | 1.4M | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts rates before 2027Kalshi | 12% | 890k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Polymarket | 56% | 630k | in 18w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes at the Sep 2026 meetingKalshi | 2% | 575k | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Polymarket | 63% | 361k | in 18w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.75% before 2027Polymarket | 3% | 356k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤3.0% before 2027Polymarket | 4% | 303k | in 21w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?Polymarket | 14% | 298k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Polymarket | 57% | 287k | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Polymarket | 66% | 280k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Polymarket | 43% | 264k | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?Polymarket | 28% | 215k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤2.5% before 2027Polymarket | 4% | 206k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed have an emergency meeting before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi | 11% | 170k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027Polymarket | 3% | 142k | in 21w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?Polymarket | 24% | 136k | in 21w | — |
| Growth/Recession | When will the next U.S. recession start?Kalshi | 0% | 131k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤0.25% before 2027Polymarket | 3% | 130k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts rates before 2027Polymarket | 6% | 122k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 23% | 106k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤0.5% before 2027Polymarket | 2% | 104k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 69% | 102k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 50+bps after the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 2% | 100k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥4.25% before 2027Polymarket | 32% | 97k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2026 meetingPolymarket | 6% | 96k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >3.75% after the Sep 2026 meetingKalshi | 56% | 90k | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed lower bound ≤3.25% before 2027Polymarket | 8% | 80k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥4.75% before 2027Polymarket | 4% | 79k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Polymarket | 23% | 79k | in 21w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?Polymarket | 4% | 63k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 88% | 59k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Polymarket | 2% | 58k | in 6w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?Polymarket | 68% | 58k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Polymarket | 37% | 58k | in 6w | — |
| Inflation | Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?Polymarket | 3% | 54k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed upper bound ≥5.5% before 2027Polymarket | 3% | 52k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed cuts 25bps at the Oct 2026 meetingKalshi | 7% | 35k | in 12w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed raises rates before 2027Kalshi | 69% | 25k | in 21w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >3.50% after the Dec 2026 meetingKalshi | 86% | 23k | in 18w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed holds at the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi | 64% | 20k | in 25w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed hikes 25bps at the Dec 2026 meetingKalshi | 34% | 13k | in 18w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >3.25% after the Jan 2027 meetingKalshi | 82% | 13k | in 25w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will above 125000 jobs be added in September 2026?Kalshi | 39% | 5k | in 8w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Fed funds >3.50% after the Oct 2026 meetingKalshi | 93% | 5k | in 12w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in September?Kalshi | 19% | 4k | in 8w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 4.3% for the year ending in August 2026?Kalshi | 2% | 3k | in 5w | — |
| Rates/Fed | Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?Kalshi | 22% | 3k | in 21w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will above 0 jobs be added in October 2026?Kalshi | 78% | 2k | in 13w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will real GDP increase by more than 2.5% in Q3 2026?Kalshi | 58% | 2k | in 12w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in November 2026?Kalshi | 30% | 2k | in 18w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October?Kalshi | 71% | 2k | in 13w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will above 125000 jobs be added in November 2026?Kalshi | 17% | 2k | in 17w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will real GDP increase by more than 1.5% in Q4 2026?Kalshi | 74% | 2k | in 25w | — |
| Inflation | Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in September 2026?Kalshi | 14% | 883 | in 10w | — |
| Growth/Recession | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in November?Kalshi | 29% | 555 | in 17w | — |